Table 4 Observed and predicted breast cancer specific mortality at ten years in combined validation data sets by estrogen receptor status, age at diagnosis, tumour size, nodes positive and tumour grade

ER negative

 20–29

92

27.1

25.6

24

13

0.55

6

0.76

 30–39

855

246.8

246.8

226

9

0.18

9

0.18

 40–49

414

130.9

124.4

122

8

0.41

2

0.83

 50–59

165

48.7

46.3

45

8

0.60

3

0.85

 60–69

117

35.9

33.8

28

28

0.19

21

0.32

 70–79

11

3.0

2.8

1

202

0.24

180

0.28

 Total

1654

492.4

479.7

446

11

0.034

8

0.12

ER positive

 20–29

140

24.3

47.7

34

-28

0.050

40

0.047

 30–39

1633

276.0

316.5

304

-9

0.092

4

0.48

 40–49

1063

203.3

186.0

167

22

0.010

11

0.16

 50–59

467

56.6

51.1

49

16

0.31

4

0.77

 60–69

517

72.9

66.9

72

1

0.91

-7

0.53

 70–79

55

9.9

8.8

7

41

0.36

26

0.54

 Total

3875

643.0

677.1

633

2

0.67

7

0.09

ER negative

 0–9

96

11.1

13.3

12

-7

0.79

10

0.73

 10–19

559

108.9

118.9

110

-1

0.92

8

0.41

 20–29

524

149.9

144.3

140

7

0.42

3

0.72

 30–49

354

150.2

131.4

130

16

0.10

1

0.91

 50+

121

72.9

71.8

54

35

0.027

33

0.04

 Total

1654

493.0

479.7

446

11

0.034

8

0.12

ER positive

 0–9

352

20.2

17.5

27

-25

0.13

-35

0.024

 10–19

1428

130.7

142.2

151

-13

0.076

-6

0.46

 20–29

1111

188.6

195.5

192

-2

0.81

2

0.80

 30–49

695

180.7

189.5

165

10

0.24

15

0.07

 50+

289

123.3

132.3

98

26

0.023

35

0.00

 Total

3875

643.7

677.1

633

2

0.67

7

0.09

ER negative

 0

937

180.2

165.3

167

8

0.33

-1

0.89

 1

232

64.4

70.0

60

7

0.58

17

0.23

 2–4

300

127.8

132.1

117

9

0.34

13

0.19

 5–9

101

58.9

57.2

55

7

0.61

4

0.77

 10+

84

61.7

55.1

47

31

0.062

17

0.28

 Total

1654

493.0

479.7

446

11

0.034

8

0.12

ER positive

 0

2,085

169.0

190.6

188

-10

0.14

1

0.85

 1

675

97.8

109.1

100

-2

0.83

9

0.39

 2–4

734

187.8

187.5

181

4

0.62

4

0.63

 5–9

245

109.6

109.5

94

17

0.14

17

0.14

 10+

136

79.5

80.3

70

14

0.29

15

0.25

 Total

3875

643.7

677.1

633

2

0.67

7

0.09

ER negative

 1

44

6.2

7.3

7

-12

0.74

4

0.91

 2

183

41.7

45.6

39

7

0.68

17

0.33

 3

1427

445.1

426.8

400

11

0.033

7

0.19

 Total

1654

493.0

479.7

446

11

0.034

8

0.12

ER positive

 1

658

29.4

31.4

27

9

0.66

16

0.43

 2

1730

212.1

230.8

219

-3

0.64

5

0.44

 3

1487

402.2

414.9

387

4

0.45

7

0.17

 Total

3875

643.7

677.1

633

2

0.67

7

0.09