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Table 7 Fit of model estimates to data observed in a trial of annual mammographicscreening starting age 40 in the UK.

From: Modelling the overdiagnosis of breast cancer due to mammography screening in womenaged 40 to 49 in the United Kingdom

  Invasive In-situ
  Observed Expected Observed Expected
Screening episode AGE trial Paremeter estimation model Overdiagnosis model AGE trial Paremeter estimation model Overdiagnosis model
   Intervention arm (offered annual screening)  
   Screen-detected cancers  
1 31 28(22-34) 32 6 7(3-12) 7
2 20 18(16-20) 19 3 5(2-8) 5
3 16 17(15-19) 18 3 5(2-7) 5
4 15 17(15-18) 17 5 5(2-6) 5
5 16 15(13-17) 16 4 5(2-6) 4
6 13 14(13-15) 15 7 3(2-6) 4
7 19 14(12-15) 14 9 3(2-6) 4
8 21 11(10-12) 12 6 3(2-4) 3
Total 151 134(116-150) 143 43 36(17-55) 37
Interval cancers
1 7 19(16-23) 16 2 1.4(0.6-2.6) 2
2 17 17(14-19) 14 2 1.3(0.5-2.4) 1
3 17 15(13-18) 13 0 1.2(0.5-2.2) 1
4 17 13(11-15) 13 1 1(0.4-1.9) 1
5 10 12(10-14) 12 0 0.9(0.4-1.7) 1
6 16 12(10-13) 11 1 0.9(0.4-1.7) 1
7 18 10(8-11) 11 1 0.7(0.3-1.4) 1
8 11 4(3-5) 9 2 0.2(0.1-0.5) 1
Total 113 102(85-118) 99 9 7.6(3.2-14.4) 9
Control arm (not offered screening)
40 52 -1 69 1 - 5
41 115 - 111 8 - 7
42 115 - 124 7 - 9
43 129 - 133 7 - 12
44 138 - 147 15 - 13
45 161 - 155 16 - 12
46 161 - 160 12 - 10
47 165 - 165 7 - 11
48 172 - 166 13 - 12
Total 1208 - 1230 86 - 91
  1. 1The parameter estimation model was built using the incidence in thecontrol arm.