| Invasive | In-situ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Observed | Expected | Observed | Expected | ||
Screening episode | AGE trial | Paremeter estimation model | Overdiagnosis model | AGE trial | Paremeter estimation model | Overdiagnosis model |
 |  | Intervention arm (offered annual screening) |  | |||
 |  | Screen-detected cancers |  | |||
1 | 31 | 28(22-34) | 32 | 6 | 7(3-12) | 7 |
2 | 20 | 18(16-20) | 19 | 3 | 5(2-8) | 5 |
3 | 16 | 17(15-19) | 18 | 3 | 5(2-7) | 5 |
4 | 15 | 17(15-18) | 17 | 5 | 5(2-6) | 5 |
5 | 16 | 15(13-17) | 16 | 4 | 5(2-6) | 4 |
6 | 13 | 14(13-15) | 15 | 7 | 3(2-6) | 4 |
7 | 19 | 14(12-15) | 14 | 9 | 3(2-6) | 4 |
8 | 21 | 11(10-12) | 12 | 6 | 3(2-4) | 3 |
Total | 151 | 134(116-150) | 143 | 43 | 36(17-55) | 37 |
Interval cancers | ||||||
1 | 7 | 19(16-23) | 16 | 2 | 1.4(0.6-2.6) | 2 |
2 | 17 | 17(14-19) | 14 | 2 | 1.3(0.5-2.4) | 1 |
3 | 17 | 15(13-18) | 13 | 0 | 1.2(0.5-2.2) | 1 |
4 | 17 | 13(11-15) | 13 | 1 | 1(0.4-1.9) | 1 |
5 | 10 | 12(10-14) | 12 | 0 | 0.9(0.4-1.7) | 1 |
6 | 16 | 12(10-13) | 11 | 1 | 0.9(0.4-1.7) | 1 |
7 | 18 | 10(8-11) | 11 | 1 | 0.7(0.3-1.4) | 1 |
8 | 11 | 4(3-5) | 9 | 2 | 0.2(0.1-0.5) | 1 |
Total | 113 | 102(85-118) | 99 | 9 | 7.6(3.2-14.4) | 9 |
Control arm (not offered screening) | ||||||
40 | 52 | -1 | 69 | 1 | - | 5 |
41 | 115 | - | 111 | 8 | - | 7 |
42 | 115 | - | 124 | 7 | - | 9 |
43 | 129 | - | 133 | 7 | - | 12 |
44 | 138 | - | 147 | 15 | - | 13 |
45 | 161 | - | 155 | 16 | - | 12 |
46 | 161 | - | 160 | 12 | - | 10 |
47 | 165 | - | 165 | 7 | - | 11 |
48 | 172 | - | 166 | 13 | - | 12 |
Total | 1208 | - | 1230 | 86 | - | 91 |