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Table 2 Ten-year breast cancer risks as observed and assigned by BCRAT and IBIS.

From: Breast cancer risk assessment across the risk continuum: genetic and nongenetic risk factors contributing to differential model performance

   Observed risk (%) Assigned risk (%) Observed/Assigned
All subjects N Risk CI BCRAT IBIS BCRAT IBIS
Age (yrs) at risk assignment Ratio Ratio
<35 471 1.91 0.91-3.98 0.58 2.11 3.29 0.91
35-49 769 7.03 5.06-9.68 2.96 6.13 2.38 1.15
50+ 617 8.49 6.16-11.59 5.43 7.26 1.56 1.17
Age (yrs) at first menarche
<14 yrs 1416 6.67 5.24-8.47 3.31 5.64 2.02 1.18
> = 14 or unknown 441 4.54 2.74-7.45 2.74 4.98 1.66 0.91
Age (yrs) at FLB
<25 yrs 576 4.98 3.15-7.79 4.05 4.93 1.23 1.01
> = 25 or Nulliparous 1281 6.71 5.23-8.58 2.79 5.73 2.41 1.17
Menopausal status
Pre 1190 5.13 3.77-6.94 2.04 4.51 2.51 1.14
Post 667 8.13 5.95-11.00 5.2 7.22 1.56 1.13
HRT use
Never 1488 5.59 4.3-7.24 2.79 5.07 2.00 1.10
Ever 369 8.56 5.74-12.60 4.74 7.16 1.81 1.20
Number of breast biopsies
0 1546 5.72 4.42-7.36 2.63 5.04 2.17 1.13
1+ 311 8.7 5.72-13.02 5.87 7.72 1.48 1.13
BMI (kg/m²)
<25 1098 5.80 4.36-7.67 2.98 5.25 1.95 1.05
> = 25 759 7.04 4.99-9.85 3.46 5.83 2.03 1.21
First-degree female relatives with BC
0 641 5.84 3.93-8.61 1.67 3.43 3.50 1.70
1+ 1261 6.48 4.98-8.38 3.97 6.57 1.63 0.99
Second/third-degree relatives with BC
0 969 5.64 4.04-7.81 3.41 5.35 1.65 1.05
1+ 888 6.83 5.10-9.09 2.92 5.64 2.34 1.21
All relatives with OC
0 1395 6.09 4.72-7.84 3.26 4.53 1.87 1.34
1+ 463 6.72 4.38-10.17 2.92 8.37 2.30 0.80
BRCA mutation status
Test result positive 110 16.29 9.70-26.07 3.77 33.8 4.32 0.48
Test result negative 690 6.24 4.53-8.54 3.63 3.66 1.72 1.70
Untested 1057 5 3.46-7.17 2.82 3.73 1.77 1.34
Race/Ethnicity
Non-Hispanic White 1270 7.09 5.65-8.85 3.52 6.15 2.01 1.15
Other 587 2.6 1.18-5.63 2.43 4.06 1.07 0.64
  1. BC, breast cancer; FLB, first live-birth; HRT, hormone replacement therapy; OC, ovarian cancer.