PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer

Breast Cancer Research

Table 3 Overall actual and predicted mortality in Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre cohort

			Year 5 deaths*			Year 8 deaths*
Group	N	%	A	P^†	Mortality Difference	A	P^†	Mortality Difference	AUC	SE
Total	5,694	100.00	841	890	0.86	1,075	1,082	0.12	0.81	0.007
Age, years
<35	111	1.95	28	23	4.5	31	27	3.6	0.83	0.044
35 to 49	1,172	20.58	150	171	1.79	187	209	1.88	0.81	0.017
50 to 64	2,630	46.19	270	289	0.72	354	359	0.19	0.80	0.013
65 to 74	1,124	19.74	176	191	1.33	227	233	0.53	0.79	0.019
75+	657	11.54	217	216	0.15	276	254	3.35	0.68	0.021
Nodal status
Negative	3,532	62.03	297	350	1.5	408	433	0.71	0.76	0.013
Positive	2,162	37.97	544	541	0.14	667	649	0.83	0.80	0.010
Tumour size, mm
<10	625	10.98	30	39	1.44	41	49	1.28	0.75	0.038
10 to 19	2,310	40.57	194	222	1.21	267	280	0.56	0.75	0.017
20 to 29	1,627	28.57	277	283	0.37	363	347	0.98	0.79	0.013
30 to 49	845	14.84	215	226	1.3	259	270	1.3	0.76	0.018
50+	287	5.04	125	119	2.09	145	136	3.14	0.82	0.024
Grade
I	1,005	17.65	38	64	2.59	55	82	2.69	0.76	0.035
II	2,927	51.40	331	357	0.89	455	445	0.34	0.77	0.013
III	1,762	30.94	472	470	0.11	565	555	0.57	0.77	0.012
Oestrogen Receptor (ER) Status
Negative	991	17.40	321	318	0.3	364	353	1.11	0.77	0.016
Positive	4,703	82.60	520	572	1.11	711	729	0.38	0.80	0.009

* Number of deaths after censoring follow up at five and eight years after diagnosis.
† Predicted number of deaths rounded to nearest whole number

ISSN: 1465-542X