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Table 3 Risk prediction model for breast cancer with and without estradiol (loge)

From: Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

No estradiol model
Parameter Beta SE P value Increment RR 95% CI
Intercept -10.8      
Duration of premenopause, years 0.102 0.009 <0.001 1 1.11 1.09, 1.13
(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa 0.0035 0.0051 0.49 10 1.04 0.94, 1.14
Birth indexa -0.0030 0.0007 <0.001 102 0.74 0.64, 0.85
Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause) 0.049 0.006 <0.001 1 1.05 1.04, 1.06
Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy) 0.039 0.008 <0.001 1 1.04 1.02, 1.06
Benign breast disease 0.288 0.656 0.66 1 1.33 0.37, 4.82
Benign breast disease × age at menarche 0.091 0.027 0.001 1 1.10 1.04, 1.15
Benign breast disease × duration premenopause -0.018 0.012 0.14 1 0.98 0.96, 1.01
Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause -0.029 0.008 <0.001 1 0.97 0.96, 0.99
Duration of estrogen use 0.032 0.008 <0.001 10 1.38 1.18, 1.61
Duration of estrogen plus progestin use 0.068 0.013 <0.001 10 1.97 1.53, 2.55
Duration of other PMH use 0.032 0.011 0.006 10 1.38 1.11, 1.71
Current PMH use 0.109 0.079 0.17 1 1.12 0.96, 1.30
Past PMH use -0.022 0.073 0.76 1 0.98 0.85, 1.13
Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH) -0.0011 0.0003 <0.001 370b 0.67 0.54, 0.83
Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH) 0.0038 0.0006 <0.001 200c 2.14 1.69, 2.71
Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH) 0.00072 0.00037 0.052 222d 1.17 1.00, 1.38
Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH) -1 × 10-5 0.0015 0.99 120e 1.00 0.70, 1.42
Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams 0.00034 0.00009 <0.001 384f 1.14 1.06, 1.22
Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH -0.00036 0.00041 0.39 120g 0.96 0.87, 1.05
Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH 0.00008 0.00031 0.80 240h 1.02 0.88, 1.18
Family history of breast cancer 0.447 0.065 <0.001 1 1.56 1.38, 1.78
Model including loge estradioli
Parameter Beta SE P value Increment RR 95% CI
Intercept -11.9      
Duration of premenopause, years 0.101 0.01 <0.001 1 1.11 1.08, 1.13
(Age at first birth minus age at menarche) × parousa 0.0035 0.0055 <0.001 10 1.04 0.93, 1.15
Birth index -0.0020 0.0008 0.02 102 0.82 0.69, 0.96
Duration of postmenopause (natural menopause) 0.056 0.007 <0.001 1 1.06 1.04, 1.07
Duration of postmenopause (bilateral oophorectomy) 0.045 0.009 <0.001 1 1.05 1.03, 1.06
Benign breast disease 0.287 0.719 0.69 1 1.33 0.33, 5.45
Benign breast disease × age at menarche 0.091 0.029 0.002 1 1.10 1.03, 1.16
Benign breast disease × duration premenopause -0.018 0.014 0.18 1 0.98 0.96, 1.01
Benign breast disease × duration postmenopause -0.029 0.008 0.001 1 0.97 0.96, 0.99
Duration of estrogen use 0.032 0.009 <0.001 10 1.38 1.15, 1.64
Duration of estrogen plus progestin use 0.068 0.014 <0.001 10 1.97 1.50, 2.60
Duration of other PMH use 0.032 0.013 0.012 10 1.38 1.07, 1.78
Current PMH use 0.110 0.087 0.21 1 1.12 0.94, 1.32
Past PMH use -0.022 0.080 0.78 1 0.98 0.84, 1.14
Average BMI premenopause or postmenopause while on PMH × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH) -0.0011 0.0003 <0.001 370b 0.67 0.54, 0.83
Average BMI postmenopause while not on PMH × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH) 0.0023 0.0007 0.002 200c 1.58 1.20, 2.08
Height × (duration premenopause + duration postmenopause while on PMH) 0.00072 0.00041 0.072 222d 1.17 0.98, 1.40
Height × (duration postmenopause while not on PMH) 0 0.0016 1 120e 1.00 0.69, 1.46
Cumulative alcohol consumption before menopause, grams 0.00034 0.0001 0.001 384f 1.14 1.06, 1.23
Cumulative alcohol consumption after menopause while on PMH -0.00036 0.00045 0.43 120g 0.96 0.86, 1.06
Cumulative alcohol consumption postmenopause while not on PMH 0.00008 0.00034 0.81 240h 1.02 0.87, 1.20
Family history of breast cancer 0.446 0.072 <0.001 1 1.56 1.36, 1.80
Loge estradiol 0.477 0.092 <0.001 1 1.61 1.35, 1.93
  1. a0 for nulliparous women.
  2. bComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).
  3. cComparing BMI = 20 versus BMI = 30 for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  4. dComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 37 premenopausal years (age at menarche = 13, age at menopause = 50).
  5. eComparing height = 61 inches versus height = 67 inches for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  6. fComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 32 premenopausal years (from age 18 to age 50).
  7. gComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 10 years of PMH use.
  8. hComparing 1 drink per day (12 g) versus no intake for 20 postmenopausal years (age at menopause = 50, age = 70).
  9. iBased on an average of five imputations.
  10. BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; PMH, postmenopausal hormone; RR, relative risk; SE, standard error.