|  |  |  |  | ER-negative patientsa | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  | Age 40 years | Age 60 years | ||||||||||
 |  |  |  |  | Grade 3 | Grade 2 | Grade 1 | Grade 3 | Grade 2 | Grade 1 | ||||||
 |  |  |  |  | <1 cm | 1–2 cm | <1 cm | 1–2 cm | <1 cm | 1–2 cm | <1 cm | 1–2 cm | <1 cm | 1–2 cm | <1 cm | 1–2 cm |
Row | Risk/risk reduction | FNR | Explanation of calculations | ENPb → | (15%) | (35%) | (12%) | (30%) | (10%) | (25%) | (15%) | (35%) | (12%) | (30%) | (10%) | (25%) |
1 | 10-year mortality risk in NN women | Â | Â | Â | 8 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 6 |
2 | 10-year mortality real risk in those with 1–3 positive nodes |  |  |  | 33 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 13 | 13 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 13 | 13 |
3 | Reduction in 10-year mortality with adjuvant therapy in NN women | Â | Â | Â | 3.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
4 | Reduction in 10-year mortality with adjuvant therapy in NP women (as would apply to the false-negative patients) | Â | Â | Â | 14.2 | 14.2 | 13 | 13 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
5 | Difference in absolute benefit between NN and NP women from chemotherapy (NP - NN) | Â | Â | Â | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
6 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
7 | Unsuspected harm in a SNB-negative woman = (overall risk for missing positive axilla [AFN = FNR × ENP] × difference between benefit for NP and NN women [NP - NN]) + (harm from axillary relapse [AFN × 0.1]) | 9.7% | Actual % of patients with missed positive axilla (AFN = ENP × FNR) | 1.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 | |
8 |  |  | Mortality due to axillary recurrence (AFN × 0.1) | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.24 | |
9 |  |  | Mortality due to no chemotherapy (AFN × [NP - NN]) | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.04 | |
10 | Â | Â | Total | 0.30 | 0.56 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.12 | 0.29 | |
11 | Unsuspected harm in a SNB-negative woman = (overall risk for missing positive axilla [AFN = FNR × ENP] × difference between benefit for NP and NN women [NP - NN]) + (harm from axillary relapse [AFN × 0.1]) | 20.0% | Actual % of patients with missed positive axilla (AFN = ENP × FNR) | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | |
12 |  |  | Mortality due to axillary recurrence (AFN × 0.1) | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.50 | |
13 |  |  | Mortality due to no chemotherapy (AFN × [NP - NN]) | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.09 | |
14 | Â | Â | Total | 0.61 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 1.16 | 0.39 | 0.82 | 0.25 | 0.59 | |
15 | Unsuspected harm in a SNB-negative woman = (overall risk for missing positive axilla [AFN = FNR × ENP] × difference between benefit for NP and NN women [NP - NN]) + (harm from axillary relapse [AFN × 0.1]) | 100.0% | Actual % of patients with missed positive axilla (AFN = ENP × FNR) | 15 | 35 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 25 | 15 | 35 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 25 | |
16 |  |  | Mortality due to axillary recurrence (AFN × 0.1) | 1.50 | 3.50 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 3.50 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
17 |  |  | Mortality due to no chemotherapy (AFN × [NP - NN]) | 1.56 | 2.31 | 1.27 | 2.01 | 0.48 | 0.83 | 1.10 | 2.28 | 0.73 | 1.11 | 0.26 | 0.45 | |
18 | Â | Â | Total | 3.06 | 5.81 | 2.47 | 5.01 | 1.48 | 3.33 | 2.60 | 5.78 | 1.93 | 4.11 | 1.26 | 2.95 |